How and Why Informal Cashflows Matter to Global Real Estate Funds in 2025
- NCC IQ
- Aug 3
- 3 min read
Updated: Aug 4
Every day across Latin America, street vendors, moto-couriers, and unregistered contractors trade goods and services worth hundreds of billions of dollars. This invisible commerce rarely appears on brokerage dashboards, yet it shapes housing demand, rent-collection cycles, and neighborhood renewal. Rebuilding innovation from the informal economy outward asks a direct question: what happens when real-estate capital listens first to informal data, then engineers products that match that cash-based majority?
Informality represents about 35 percent of GDP in low- and middle-income nations and can climb to 70 percent inside the region’s largest markets. Roughly 46 million Latin Americans now earn income through gig platforms that sit outside formal payroll systems. Mexico alone is on track to receive US $68 billion in remittances this year, much of it in cash that ultimately seeks shelter for families. These streams hint at unpriced demand for micro-leasing, fractional ownership, and rent-to-own structures.
Cash is receding, though not disappearing. In 2025 electronic transactions already cover 60 percent of consumer spending across the region, up from 35 percent five years ago. Richer small-ticket payment trails anchor underwriting for sub-US $10,000 residential tokens. Brazil’s Pix rail shows how fast change can move: analysts expect Pix to overtake credit cards for online sales by year-end.
Deloitte projects tokenized private real-estate funds could reach US $1 trillion in value by 2035, while ScienceSoft places the broader figure near US $3 trillion by 2030. The driver is not speculative blockchain zeal; it is fractional liquidity that syncs with vendors earning 400 pesos per day. Designing tokens around those flows lets sponsors bypass traditional ticket minimums and reach a vast pool of savers previously kept outside regulated capital.
Managers known for deep-value plays already mine telecom exhaust, satellite foot-traffic, and Pix settlement grids to triangulate sub-district cash intensity. Marrying those data sets with token rails builds early access to tenants likely to formalise, raising occupancy and lowering collection friction. Yield compression follows, not through speculation, but through sharper underwriting.
Scenario analysis can now be run at parcel level using mobile-tagged spending and telco density, cutting model error to roughly ±4 percent in pilot portfolios. Precision matters in cities where rent growth can swing 200 basis points on a single street-corner supply shock. Discounting these cashflows appropriately gives institutional funds clarity comparable with inventory data in top-tier metros. Such visibility tightens spreads early.
This thesis—start with informal signals, fund through programmable tokens, then scale through AI—will headline NCC IQ’s virtual summit, “ReShaped: AI x Real Estate,” on 20–21 September 2025. Patrick E Calderon, founder of Piedra. Piedra itself is tokenizing residential and commercial assets across the region, demonstrating how trust tech can open fresh capital channels while respecting local realities.
Visit the event registration page today and align your strategy with the next growth curve in Latin American real estate.
Credit: (World Bank, Deloitte Insights, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Payments CMI,)
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This communication is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. It does not constitute, and shall not be construed as, an offer, invitation, or solicitation to purchase, acquire, subscribe for, sell, or otherwise dispose of any real estate investments, securities, or related financial instruments. Nothing contained herein should be interpreted as a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment strategy or opportunity. Furthermore, this communication does not represent, and shall not be deemed to constitute, the issuance, sale, or transfer of any real estate interests in any jurisdiction where such actions would be in violation of applicable laws, regulations, or licensing requirements.
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